Southwestern Agriculture and the Effects of Climate Legislation

Recently I headed up an American Farmland Trust study where a team of researchers from the University of Arizona, Colorado State University and New Mexico State University looked at the potential effects of climate legislation on the agricultural economies in their region.
This was an interesting question to look at since agriculture in these states is very diverse- as is the geography and climate. Agriculture production in this region includes grain crops, dairy and cattle, cotton, fruit, vegetable and nuts. I am not aware of any other studies that have looked at this question.
As expected, the team of researchers found that farmers and ranchers will be challenged by climate legislation. However, it is noteworthy that overall there are improved revenue opportunities from higher crop prices, new biofuels markets, carbon sequestration and offsets.
Coming from a farm family, I know that any cost increases are tough to absorb when one has to consistently operate with tight profit margins. Therefore I was surprised to learn from the analysis that while input costs will go up, provisions in the legislation would likely limit fertilizer increases to between 0.3% and 2% by 2020, and energy cost increases between 4% and 13% in 2020.
These are increases I think farmers can plan for and live with, especially since the analysis also showed that the higher commodity prices estimated by many studies could largely offset these projected price increases. Grazing and confined livestock operations may be able to use methane digester technologies to generate income from carbon offsets and electricity generation.
Even for those farmers facing the greatest challenge―those with high feeding costs or traditional ranchers, the study shows that the cost increases are well within the range of recent energy-price variability. I know that sometimes cost increases seem to be very real, and much more certain than revenue increases to farmers, but I think this study may give farmers some measure of confidence that we're looking at a timeframe that should allow them time to adjust.
Climate and clean energy legislation have been on and off the federal legislative agenda this past year. At the moment, it looks like it may come back again. At American Farmland Trust, we believe it is important to have a well-respected third-party like this team to review the studies and look at the various legislative and economic scenarios. Then we can better understand costs and opportunities and find good policy options.
Agriculture can play an important role in helping reduce and mitigate greenhouse gasses. If Congress doesn't pass a clean energy bill,
the EPA is mandated by the Supreme Court to enact regulations under the Clean Air Act, which will affect agriculture. Those regulations are going in place now.
My family knows that regulations cost our farm money. That's why personally and professionally I think it's important to be proactive - to work together in agriculture to help shape policy directly by making sure policy makers include options that will reduce and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and maximize the economic opportunities for farmers to sequester carbon, reduce greenhouse gasses and produce low carbon, renewable energy.
Click here to see the key findings of the study and to download it in its entirety.
Anita Zurbrugg, a licensed attorney, is AFT's Assistant Director for the Center for Agriculture in the Environment in DeKalb, IL. The CAE serves as the focal point for AFT's public policy research.