Predictions for upcoming seasons are laid out each year in the pages of The Old Farmer’s Almanac — charting the sun, moon, tides and past weather records to forecast the year ahead. With that in mind, we’ve done some calculations of our own and gauged the temperature of discussions surrounding farm and food policy for the 2012 Farm Bill.

Should the stars align, here are our predictions for topics to anticipate during the farm bill reauthorization process this spring.

Deficits and Cuts

The national deficit continues to loom overhead and the debate over the 2012 Farm Bill will be dominated like few others this century by deficit pressure. Every section of the legislation will be affected, but by how much we do not know. However, we do know that the deal to increase the debt ceiling means the farm bill will be cut by about $15 to $16 billion as a result of automatic sequestration. These cuts will most likely be the starting point—and not the end point—for final numbers.

Safeguarding the Environment

For conservation, 2012 will be a year when climate and environmental issues establish new trends and challenges. Dramatic weather events in 2011 created highs and lows in American agriculture, and coming years will be no exception. The discussion will focus on how to make conservation programs more efficient while equipping farmers with conservation tools and programs to meet environmental challenges and regulatory burdens.

With conservation programs having already contributed more than $2 billion to the nation’s deficit reduction through appropriations cuts, we think the farm bill debate this spring should center on promoting conservation funding without the threat of additional cuts. Conservation programs are too valuable to lose now—and for our future.

The Future of Farm Support Programs

Caught up in the budget belt-tightening are proposals to alter farm support, or subsidy, programs. For the first time in two decades, it is likely that direct payments will be eliminated. What will replace them is unclear, but the debate is currently focused on the appropriate role of government in helping farmers address risk.

We believe that  new safety net programs must protect farms from risks they can’t control, while also minimizing the programs’ influence on the economic and environmental behavior of farmers. The debate will be vigorous but we believe it will be critical to creating a farm support system that works effectively for both farmers and consumers.

Who Will be Farming and Stewarding the Land?

Now more than any time since the end of World War II, it’s important for the nation to have a serious discussion about the generational and gender shifts happening in American agriculture.

According to the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture, there are more than five times as many farmers at age 65 and older as there are 35 and younger. As the overall farm population ages, the influence of female landowners is predicted to rise.— 70 percent of farmland is expected to change hands in the next 20 years, with women potentially ending up  owning most of it. While we face the critical question of how land will be transitioned, at the same time we see the rise of young adults looking to start careers in agriculture but facing challenges securing land and succeeding in farming.

It will be difficult for farm policy leaders to ignore the changing demographics in agriculture. We think changes in land ownership, land stewardship and the engagement of young and beginning farmers in agriculture should be part of the discussion as Congress addresses programs for farmland protection, farm viability, and conservation.

Strengthening America’s Farm and Food System

Lawmakers will need to look systematically at what rural development policy is supposed to do to help today’s rural America.

The 2012 Farm Bill can be a catalyst to help rural America by finding ways to stimulate new market opportunities for agriculture and further support for local and regional food systems. Consumer demand for local food continues to rise, and farm policy can play a critical role in helping farmers provide it.

A Healthier Nation

Public health and nutrition, and the intersection with agriculture, is currently at the forefront of national interest. Amid on-going conversations about public health and chronic diseases is a focus on the availability of fresh, healthy food.

The connection between healthier diets and agricultural production is very real and easy to see. The demand for healthy food opens markets for agricultural products and potentially  helps keep farmers farming. Less clear, but no less important, is the role that public health demands may play in   local and regional food systems. The next farm bill presents the opportunity to explore public health while also creating market opportunities for farmers. We think 2012 will be the beginning of a long term trend of a new public health constituent group in the farm bill.

The forecast for the 2012 Farm Bill will take the direction of real forces shaping farm and food policy. As discussions around the 2012 Farm Bill get underway in Washington, we’ll be asking supporters of America’s farms and food to learn more, speak up and be heard.

Did you know that Connecticut was coined the “Provision State” by George Washington for the important role the state’s productive farms played in feeding the troops for the American Revolution?

Agriculture is growing and changing in Connecticut again, with a need to reclaim pastures and cropland while rebuilding agricultural infrastructure. To help meet this need and boost the job creating activities associated with agriculture, the Connecticut Department of Agriculture will soon launch a new Farmland Restoration Program. Department of Agriculture Commissioner Steven Reviczky credits Governor Malloy for promoting the restoration provision, noting in his travels the number of overgrown fields were there were once productive farms.

In many parts of the state, there is great competition for the best farmland and little opportunity for beginning farmers to access land. The new program will help farmers and landowners restore private, state, municipal and land trust lands back into agricultural production. Up to $20,000 per project will be available (with a match required) to implement a number of different restoration and conservation practices. The restoration plan will be developed in consultation with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service and Connecticut Conservation District Specialists, with federal funds being leveraged for some of the conservation practices. Potential activities funded by the new program include the removal of invasive plants and brush, installation of fencing for reclamation areas to protect crops and wetlands, the renovation of farm ponds and the planting of streamside buffers.

The Farmland Restoration Program is expected to increase the acreage of farmland available to help new and existing farmers grow their businesses, thus creating jobs and providing fresh local products to meet growing consumer demands so the state can once again reclaim its name as “The Provision State.”

Details about the program and application materials are available at the Connecticut Department of Agriculture’s website, www.CTGrown.gov (click on “Programs and Services”), or by calling 860-713-2511.

From the Battlefield to the Farm Field

Around the country, an increasing number of opportunities are helping military veterans transition to civilian life through farm programs and apprenticeships. In San Diego, a retired Marine has trained about 60 people returning from Iraq and Afghanistan through the Veteran Sustainable Agriculture Training program. And 2012 TEDx Manhattan Challenge winner Howard Hinterthuer is running a similar initiative in Milwaukee to help veterans transition into food production.

Take Action to Protect North Carolina Conservation Funding

Due to an accelerated legislative timetable, Land for Tomorrow is urging North Carolina residents to contact members of the state’s General Assembly now to ask them to protect conservation funding.

Young Farmers to Gather in Michigan

From March 9 to 11, the Michigan Young Farmer Coalition is hosting a retreat for young farmers from across the state to gather and help strengthen the future of Michigan agriculture.

A Super Bowl at the Super Bowl

Centerplate, the NFL’s largest food and beverage vendor, has partnered with Farm Aid co-founder John Mellencamp to promote its new line of “Homegrown”-branded locally sourced concessions. The partnership will kick off this weekend with bowls of beef and pork chili at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Eight Former Secretaries of Agriculture to Convene

This week, USDA announced the commemoration of its 150^th year by bringing together eight former secretaries of agriculture at the 2012 Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 23 to 24.

Addressing Unemployment through Agriculture

The Michigan Land Institute is seeking to lower the unemployment rate through farming. The organization recently kicked off a program that would help low-income families gain the tools and resources needed to start farming.

This year, when people see New England vs. New York, they think about football. But here at American Farmland Trust we think about…. You guessed it—farmland! When it comes to having land with the ability to feed us, we need to keep New England and New York in the huddle.

Unfortunately, the home turf of NFL quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning are also among America’s most threatened farming areas. Both regions are waging serious battles to save their farms–and they’re not always winning. Between 1982 and 2007, New York lost nearly 450,000 acres of farmland while New England lost 299,700 acres.

The disappearance of farms to highways, stripmalls and sprawling development is a critical problem in America. Of course, the corn chips that we eat at our Super Bowl parties didn’t start out in a bag! The snacks we’ll enjoy with friends and family on Sunday—along with the fruits, vegetables, dairy and meats needed for a healthy diet—depend on having a strong national team of farms and ranches. The loss of farmland threatens the ability of farming families to grow our food.

Did you know:

• An acre of farmland is 43,560 sq ft, which is just about the size of a football field (without the end zones).
• Over the last 25 years, the United States has lost approximately 23 million acres, which is the same size if Indiana (home state for this year’s Super Bowl).

This weekend, whether you’re cheering for the New York or New England team, you can also root for American Farmland Trust. Help the “farm” team by making a donation today to help save farmland!

About the Author: Jon Scholl is President of American Farmland Trust. Prior to AFT, he served as Counselor to the Administrator for Agriculture Policy at the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Jon and his

Within the world of an increasingly localized food movement, we are ever more familiar with buying a peck of heirloom apples, serving up a pound of grass-fed beef, decorating with a bouquet of seasonal flowers and adding a pinch or a dash of our local agricultural products to any meal.

A number of groups, including Wholesome Wave, an organization we have partnered with in New England, promote food culture reform by helping communities recognize the importance of local food production to their ongoing happiness, health and well-being. But even with a surge of interest in “local food,” and with a number of organizations working with us to support agriculture and all its benefits, it still remains difficult for many people to make the connection between the food we eat and the land required to grow it.

So what is the value of farmland? What can one acre of land do for us?

Common Ground, a farm, high school and education center in New Haven, Connecticut, teaches young people leadership skills and environmental stewardship with a single acre of farmland. Each year, on that one acre of agricultural land:

• Students grow more than 5,000 pounds of produce, including 43varieties of vegetables

• Thirty chickens, five ducks, five turkeys, two pigs, two goats, one rabbit, one sheep and one farm cat are tended

• New jobs are created through two paid summer internships and school-year jobs for 50 teenagers

With its single acre, a plot 1/7^th the size of a Manhattan block, Common Ground shows us what farmland means for America.

As the students well know, a single acre can grow a lot of food. In terms of food production, an acre can be used to grow vegetables for 20 to 25 families for a 21-week season. With good soil, weather and conscientious management, one acre can produce 8,000 pounds of broccoli, 26,000 pounds of carrots or 30,000 pounds of field tomatoes in a growing season—or more than two gallons of milk per day.

The school illustrates, on a small scale, how an acre of farmland creates jobs. Students and interns take part in production, processing, distribution and waste management of the farm and its produce. In the state of Connecticut, home to Common Ground, agriculture represents $3.5 billion dollars of revenue a year and generates 20,000 jobs—about five jobs for every 100 acres of food production.

Of course, Common Ground’s primary focus is to produce the fruits of great education: successful students. For four years straight, the test scores at Common Ground have shown gains, including the largest gains of any Connecticut high school in 2010. Their graduation rates and college attendance also exceed the state average. As one school employee explained, “We think the opportunities for active, authentic learning produced by our 20-acre site”—including the one acre they have in production—are “a critical part” of the students’ learning. Their community environmental programs have grown beyond their own students to reach more than 8,000 students within the immediate community.

And the hands-on learning of their students includes lessons about the role that farmland plays in safeguarding our environment. An acre of land provides countless ecosystem benefits that help to safeguard clean water and breathable air and could not be reproduced or substituted by technology. These benefits include water filtration, flood reduction and carbon sequestration. Farmland also provides nesting habitat for many species of birds and wildlife.

Connecticut and the Northeast remains a region of small farms, where each acre of farmland is caught in a tug-of-war between farming and other uses—from housing developments to parking lots. With growing demands to pave over farmland, it is simply hard to picture just what we mean by an acre of farmland and perhaps even more importantly, what an acre of farmland means to us. The rolling vistas of farmland and barns, silos and pasture connect our present with the agricultural past that built our nation. Even today, they represent true production and productivity and serve to link us together in our communities.

Share your story in the comments below: “Why is an acre of farmland important to you?”

An earlier version of this piece was originally featured in the Huffington Post.

About the Author: Leah Mayor is the Working Lands Alliance Project Director and New England Project Manager at American Farmland Trust where she focuses on policy, outreach, and education about the importance of farmland protection in Connecticut and the Northeast. Mayor is the founder and principal of Taking Root, and also blogs about food and agricultural systems for a number of online platforms, including the Huffington Post.

Growing concerns about access to locally grown foods, public health issues and the conservation of natural resources recently converged in New York City at this year’s TEDx Manhattan. Among a diverse group including farmers, chefs, educators, environmentalists and local food advocates, I joined in for a day of idea sharing around the concept of “Changing the Way We Eat.”

The "edible" TEDx logo. (Photo/TEDx Manhattan)

The backdrop of the Manhattan skyline was a surprisingly fitting frame for a discussion about farms and food. TEDx Manhattan was a discussion of ideas rooted in the value of connections between rural and urban people—whether young or old, foodies or environmentalists—and about finding better ways to protect farms and food across the country.

For Patty Cantrell, a journalist working to make the business case for local and regional food, new roads to new markets are not paved in asphalt. Rather, the creation of market opportunities for local food products starts with connecting people. “It’s about making our way back to each other,” she explained, “and moving forward as a result.” Cantrell pointed to the Kalamazoo, Michigan-based Fair Food Matters as a model for empowering communities through food and for connecting people with the land that produces it.

The idea of community was a bit different for Fred Kirschenmann. A farmer in south central North Dakota who serves as both a Distinguished Fellow at the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture and as president of the Stone Barns Center for Food and Agriculture, Kirschenmann appealed to the value of the land as a vital piece in the discussion about our food. “Soil is a vibrant, living community. A community of life,” he remarked. Using examples from challenging weather events of the past year, he warned of the pressures of environmental changes on soil that is continually slipping away.

Enjoying a local food lunch with presenter Gary Oppenheimer, founder of AmpleHarvest.org (Photo/TEDx Manhattan)

Whether discussing how to safeguard soil quality to discovering new ways to provide healthier food options in schools, an undertone of the day was the critical need to think about the future today.  Michelle Hughes, Director of GrowNYC’s New Farmer Development Project, connected the rapid loss of farmland to development with the need to cultivate new farmers. The New Farmer Development Project works with immigrant families in New York City to provide access to farmland and to assistance in finding local market opportunities. As Hughes explained, connecting the new farmers to land is making a positive impact on immigrant families and communities while keeping farmland viable and healthy.

The farm and food innovators throughout the audience were an energized community in themselves. I was even able to catch up with Cara Rosaen of Real Time Farms after her impassioned talk on empowering eaters and farmers. In the end, I left with a hopeful feeling. The lesson of the day: When it comes to the health of our lands, access to healthy food, and a viable future for farms, ideas are worth creating, developing and believing in as part of a community invested in a healthy future for us all.

Future Faces of Farming

In 2011, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack called for 100,000 new farmers a year across the nation. In the foodshed surrounding Washington, D.C., a young generation of farmers—a diverse mix including educators, chefs and budding entrepreneurs—is rising to meet this challenge with the goal of strengthening the local farm and food system.

1,200 Acres of New York Farmland Protected

The Agricultural Stewardship Association of upstate New York recently announced the completion of a 1,200 acre conservation project on three farms in Rensselaer and Washington counties. Included in the project is the Hooskip Farm, which straddles the Vermont border and has protected land in both states.

Hospitals Across the Mid-Atlantic Commit to Buying Local

In Maryland, Washington, D.C., and northern Virginia, hospitals have been working to support local farmers, the local economy and healthier diets for their patients through the increased purchase of local foods. More than 40 institutions are regularly purchasing seasonal fruits and vegetables while nine have stepped up to also source meat and poultry locally. Existing campaigns, such as the “Buy Local Challenge” in Maryland, have helped to spur these new purchasing initiatives.

1,000 Pounds of Butter Warms Pennsylvania Home

Once an agricultural fair or farm show is over, what to do with a decorative butter sculpture? In Pennsylvania, a 1,000-pound sculpture was brought back to the farm and converted into biofuel through a mix digester.

Hawaii Introduces Farm to School Bill

Hawaii State Representative Cynthia Thielen recently introduced a bill that would permit schools throughout the state to purchase more food products grown or raised in the state. Rep. Thielen explained that the bill would support farmers economically while improving the health of students.

Future Farmers Answer Farm Bill Challenge

Officers of the National Future Farmers of America (FFA) answered a challenge from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to develop their own suggestions for the next farm bill. The organization, which focuses on school-based and extracurricular agricultural education, proposed recommendations in four categories: “Getting started in production agriculture; creating vibrant rural communities; who should care about agriculture and why; and planning for the future.”

Farmers embrace conservation tillage

Farmers in the San Joaquin Valley are switching to conservation tillage at a fast pace. This increase in interest comes at a much needed time for farmers and the environment in California’s Central Valley. With a potential for reduced operating costs and improved soil composition, conservation tillage has many benefits.

Minnesota increases water conservation practices

The USDA, EPA, and state of Minnesota have come together to develop a new state conservation program that will protect rivers, streams and lakes by encouraging farmers to adopt conservation practices that reduce nutrient run-off and improve water quality.

Mayors discuss food policy

Food policy was among the topics discussed this week during the annual Conference of Mayors in Washington, D.C. Mayor Menino of Boston heads the discussion of the Food Policy Task Force, covering topics from urban food policy  to SNAP benefits.

Bringing fair food access to you

Gus Schumacher, American Farmland Trust board member, discusses his passion for farming and fair food access. During his interview, he discusses the growth of farmers markets in our struggling economy and the volunteers who make them possible.

Renewable energy for farms

Alternative sources of energy are making their way onto farms. The Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Initiative (SARE) has been studying the best opportunities for renewable energy on farms, including solar, wind and fuels from animal waste.

Coventry Farmers Market pushes ahead successfully

The Coventry Regional Farmers’ Market is happy to announce that they have made it past another hurdle in their efforts to save their market. The difficulties of finding a new location after their lease was terminated have made it difficult to begin planning for their coming season.

Funds Available for Farmland Protection in Maine

The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service has announced that nearly $1 million will be available this year in Maine for successful applicants for the Farm and Ranch Lands Protection program. The state deadline is March 23 for 2013 funding. For more information on deadlines in other states, visit the NRCS website.

New York Dairies Benefitting from Yogurt Craze

An increased consumer demand for Greek yogurt is helping boost New York’s dairy economy. Over the last five years, yogurt production in the state has risen 60 percent, including a 40 percent hike in 2010.

Conference On Sustainable Food in Nebraska

The Nebraska Sustainable Agriculture Society will host its annual Healthy Farms Conference on February 10 and 11 in Nebraska City. The agenda includes programs for adults and youth, including sessions on marketing, land transitions and local food.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Shares Outlook for Farm Bill

Kicking off this year’s American Farm Bureau convention was a keynote address from Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack who outlined the Obama administration’s priorities for the farm bill. Issues included changes to farm support programs, support for conservation and funding for research.

Our passions emerge from our experiences. They reflect our values and drive our actions each and every day.

At American Farmland Trust, our work is rooted in a deep connection to farmland and a shared vision to save the land that sustains us. We want to hear from you about why you share this same passion. What drives you to care about protecting farmland? How do your experiences shape a vision of a viable future for farms and ranches? Why do you work to help safeguard America’s land and water resources?

Here are some anecdotes from our staff about their own personal passions for farms, farmland and the environment. Please join us in sharing your unique stories by commenting in the “Leave a Reply” box below.

Jon on his farm in Illinois

After growing up on a farm in Illinois, my passion stems from a deep, personal understanding of the wonders and tribulations of the life and business of farming. I gained an appreciation for land and animals ad the unique care required by both. From the time I was a young boy, I was amazed by the terrific regenerative capacity of farms and farmland as they evolve and grow to be renewed each spring. The land, I learned, was irreplaceable in this process. When I am home in Illinois, I still marvel at how good-quality soil and critical rainfall can come together at just the right time and place to produce food and so many other things we need. I cringe to remember years when the power of Mother Nature brought its challenges. Still, there is nothing more fascinating to watch than when everything comes together for an ideal growing season and harvest. I’m fortunate to still be learning from the rewarding and unpredictable life on a farm.  ~ Jon Scholl, President, American Farmland Trust

Kitty Smith, American Farmland Trust

I had an idyllic childhood in what was then a rural area outside of Chicago. I didn’t grow up on a farm but I lived in a farm house across the road from a vast, highly diversified crop and livestock farm. My mother would drive up the farm’s big lane on a weekly basis to buy fresh eggs, a side quarter of a hog, or delicious jams and jellies. We kids scattered the chickens and cooed over any baby animal on-site. When I was 12, we moved to a Baltimore suburb and, though farms were no longer in my daily view, I brought with me an appreciation for farmland. Through a research project in high school, I learned about early smart growth policies in Baltimore County and about planning to preserve open space and farmland. When I returned to Illinois some years later, a strip mall and residential development complex had replaced the wonderful farmland across from the road from my old house. Baltimore County, on the other hand, has maintained its plan which helped to preserve farmland, and the valleys are as beautiful now as they were when the plan was adopted in the late 1960s. These experiences have helped to guide my belief that farming and development can go hand-in-hand if, through good public policy, the land best suited to farmland is designated for that use.  ~ Kitty Smith, Vice President of Programs & Chief Economist, American Farmland Trust

Photo Courtesty of Sinkland Farms

Shortly after college graduation, my husband and I bought our dairy farm and, on New Year’s Day 32 years ago,Sinkland Farms was founded. My passion for the land grew from my childhood spent on my own family’s farm. Farming has simply been my way of life. As we expanded the farm from dairy production to also include harvest festivals and school field trips, our family was able to share with the public the opportunity to connect with the land and learn where food comes from. Whether at the farm or in the American Farmland Trust offices, I am fortunate to be able to share my passion for farming each and every day. ~Susan Sink, Vice President of Development and External Relations, American Farmland Trust

Bob Wagner, American Farmland Trust

Growing up on Long Island in New York—a place well-known for its crowded landscape and congested roads but also home to the first publically funded farmland protection program in the country—my connection to the protection of farmland, or rather the loss of farmland, is very personal. My parents bought a house lot to build the home I grew up in from a farmer who, like many farmers near to retirement and apparently without a family member interested in keeping the farm, began selling off the least productive portions of his farm. So our house was in what those of us on the street that emerged from the farm called “the woods.” When I was very young, my cousins and I could still go visit the farmer and pet his barnyard animals. But eventually, he sold all the lots in the woods and began to sell lots in what we all called “the fields,” one of which had become the neighborhood sandlot baseball field. Gradually, the farm fields too became house lots until only one remained – our sandlot diamond. For a little while the baseball field was still there for us to play on, until finally it too became a house. The farm was gone and so was what had become essentially a local park. This childhood experience stuck with me and contributed to my decision to pursue a degree in land use planning and eventually to become involved in helping farmers and communities develop farmland protection and farm viability programs. ~ Bob Wagner, Senior Policy and Program Advisor, American Farmland Trust

Three generations of the Hunter family.

My passion for farms started at my grandpa’s side. Nothing made an eight-year-old boy feel like a man as much as carrying a feed bucket, riding in the bed of a truck, or opening a gate for grandpa. Even getting up early was fun when it meant you got to go out to feed the horses or check the cows. As the years passed, my summertime “work camp” jobs expanded to tougher assignments—fixing fence, stacking square bales and getting cows ready for the sale barn—but that work just made grandma’s noon dinner taste better. When grandpa passed on, so did the farm, skipping a generation to my oldest cousin. Now my parents have a new farm, a cow-calf grazing operation where my own kids will get to learn the beautiful discipline of closely tending a cow herd, acres of fields and forests, and a sprawling infrastructure of fences, gates and waterers. Their grandma and grandpa will teach them where the blackcap berries grow in the summer, how to know when the garden tomatoes are ripe, and which pasture species the cows eat first when they’re moved to a new paddock. Hopefully my kids, like me, will fall in love with both the ecological complexities and the simple human joys of growing food on the land, extending my family’s farming legacy down another generation. ~ Mitch Hunter, Federal Policy Manager: Conservation, American Farmland Trust

Preparing to show at the Washington County Fair in New York.

My passion for farmland is rooted in family history. Since 1856, the Goodman family has owned and operated a dairy farm in upstate New York. Growing up around the farm has meant family is always nearby, oftentimes gathered around the table together for a meal or taking a break from work in the field to show cows at the county fair. Each generation has faced its challenges, having to adjust and evolve in order to endure. Sadly, it has been during my lifetime that the land and its history has started to slip away as my family struggles with what to do when the interest to stay home and carry on the business is lacking from my generation. With this uncertain future, we sold some land to developers who built an elite soccer camp and each day I work, at American Farmland Trust and with family members, in hopes that more productive land does not meet the same fate. I learned so much growing up at Goodmanor Farm—the value of hard work, the importance of taking care of land and water, the pricelessness of family. Though its form may change shape, I hope the land can continue to teach these lessons for generations to come, perhaps for my own children. ~Erica Goodman, Communications Associate, American Farmland Trust