Predictions for upcoming seasons are laid out each year in the pages of The Old Farmer’s Almanac — charting the sun, moon, tides and past weather records to forecast the year ahead. With that in mind, we’ve done some calculations of our own and gauged the temperature of discussions surrounding farm and food policy for the 2012 Farm Bill.

Should the stars align, here are our predictions for topics to anticipate during the farm bill reauthorization process this spring.

Deficits and Cuts

The national deficit continues to loom overhead and the debate over the 2012 Farm Bill will be dominated like few others this century by deficit pressure. Every section of the legislation will be affected, but by how much we do not know. However, we do know that the deal to increase the debt ceiling means the farm bill will be cut by about $15 to $16 billion as a result of automatic sequestration. These cuts will most likely be the starting point—and not the end point—for final numbers.

Safeguarding the Environment

For conservation, 2012 will be a year when climate and environmental issues establish new trends and challenges. Dramatic weather events in 2011 created highs and lows in American agriculture, and coming years will be no exception. The discussion will focus on how to make conservation programs more efficient while equipping farmers with conservation tools and programs to meet environmental challenges and regulatory burdens.

With conservation programs having already contributed more than $2 billion to the nation’s deficit reduction through appropriations cuts, we think the farm bill debate this spring should center on promoting conservation funding without the threat of additional cuts. Conservation programs are too valuable to lose now—and for our future.

The Future of Farm Support Programs

Caught up in the budget belt-tightening are proposals to alter farm support, or subsidy, programs. For the first time in two decades, it is likely that direct payments will be eliminated. What will replace them is unclear, but the debate is currently focused on the appropriate role of government in helping farmers address risk.

We believe that  new safety net programs must protect farms from risks they can’t control, while also minimizing the programs’ influence on the economic and environmental behavior of farmers. The debate will be vigorous but we believe it will be critical to creating a farm support system that works effectively for both farmers and consumers.

Who Will be Farming and Stewarding the Land?

Now more than any time since the end of World War II, it’s important for the nation to have a serious discussion about the generational and gender shifts happening in American agriculture.

According to the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture, there are more than five times as many farmers at age 65 and older as there are 35 and younger. As the overall farm population ages, the influence of female landowners is predicted to rise.— 70 percent of farmland is expected to change hands in the next 20 years, with women potentially ending up  owning most of it. While we face the critical question of how land will be transitioned, at the same time we see the rise of young adults looking to start careers in agriculture but facing challenges securing land and succeeding in farming.

It will be difficult for farm policy leaders to ignore the changing demographics in agriculture. We think changes in land ownership, land stewardship and the engagement of young and beginning farmers in agriculture should be part of the discussion as Congress addresses programs for farmland protection, farm viability, and conservation.

Strengthening America’s Farm and Food System

Lawmakers will need to look systematically at what rural development policy is supposed to do to help today’s rural America.

The 2012 Farm Bill can be a catalyst to help rural America by finding ways to stimulate new market opportunities for agriculture and further support for local and regional food systems. Consumer demand for local food continues to rise, and farm policy can play a critical role in helping farmers provide it.

A Healthier Nation

Public health and nutrition, and the intersection with agriculture, is currently at the forefront of national interest. Amid on-going conversations about public health and chronic diseases is a focus on the availability of fresh, healthy food.

The connection between healthier diets and agricultural production is very real and easy to see. The demand for healthy food opens markets for agricultural products and potentially  helps keep farmers farming. Less clear, but no less important, is the role that public health demands may play in   local and regional food systems. The next farm bill presents the opportunity to explore public health while also creating market opportunities for farmers. We think 2012 will be the beginning of a long term trend of a new public health constituent group in the farm bill.

The forecast for the 2012 Farm Bill will take the direction of real forces shaping farm and food policy. As discussions around the 2012 Farm Bill get underway in Washington, we’ll be asking supporters of America’s farms and food to learn more, speak up and be heard.

Did you know that Connecticut was coined the “Provision State” by George Washington for the important role the state’s productive farms played in feeding the troops for the American Revolution?

Agriculture is growing and changing in Connecticut again, with a need to reclaim pastures and cropland while rebuilding agricultural infrastructure. To help meet this need and boost the job creating activities associated with agriculture, the Connecticut Department of Agriculture will soon launch a new Farmland Restoration Program. Department of Agriculture Commissioner Steven Reviczky credits Governor Malloy for promoting the restoration provision, noting in his travels the number of overgrown fields were there were once productive farms.

In many parts of the state, there is great competition for the best farmland and little opportunity for beginning farmers to access land. The new program will help farmers and landowners restore private, state, municipal and land trust lands back into agricultural production. Up to $20,000 per project will be available (with a match required) to implement a number of different restoration and conservation practices. The restoration plan will be developed in consultation with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service and Connecticut Conservation District Specialists, with federal funds being leveraged for some of the conservation practices. Potential activities funded by the new program include the removal of invasive plants and brush, installation of fencing for reclamation areas to protect crops and wetlands, the renovation of farm ponds and the planting of streamside buffers.

The Farmland Restoration Program is expected to increase the acreage of farmland available to help new and existing farmers grow their businesses, thus creating jobs and providing fresh local products to meet growing consumer demands so the state can once again reclaim its name as “The Provision State.”

Details about the program and application materials are available at the Connecticut Department of Agriculture’s website, www.CTGrown.gov (click on “Programs and Services”), or by calling 860-713-2511.

From the Battlefield to the Farm Field

Around the country, an increasing number of opportunities are helping military veterans transition to civilian life through farm programs and apprenticeships. In San Diego, a retired Marine has trained about 60 people returning from Iraq and Afghanistan through the Veteran Sustainable Agriculture Training program. And 2012 TEDx Manhattan Challenge winner Howard Hinterthuer is running a similar initiative in Milwaukee to help veterans transition into food production.

Take Action to Protect North Carolina Conservation Funding

Due to an accelerated legislative timetable, Land for Tomorrow is urging North Carolina residents to contact members of the state’s General Assembly now to ask them to protect conservation funding.

Young Farmers to Gather in Michigan

From March 9 to 11, the Michigan Young Farmer Coalition is hosting a retreat for young farmers from across the state to gather and help strengthen the future of Michigan agriculture.

A Super Bowl at the Super Bowl

Centerplate, the NFL’s largest food and beverage vendor, has partnered with Farm Aid co-founder John Mellencamp to promote its new line of “Homegrown”-branded locally sourced concessions. The partnership will kick off this weekend with bowls of beef and pork chili at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Eight Former Secretaries of Agriculture to Convene

This week, USDA announced the commemoration of its 150^th year by bringing together eight former secretaries of agriculture at the 2012 Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 23 to 24.

Addressing Unemployment through Agriculture

The Michigan Land Institute is seeking to lower the unemployment rate through farming. The organization recently kicked off a program that would help low-income families gain the tools and resources needed to start farming.

This year, when people see New England vs. New York, they think about football. But here at American Farmland Trust we think about…. You guessed it—farmland! When it comes to having land with the ability to feed us, we need to keep New England and New York in the huddle.

Unfortunately, the home turf of NFL quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning are also among America’s most threatened farming areas. Both regions are waging serious battles to save their farms–and they’re not always winning. Between 1982 and 2007, New York lost nearly 450,000 acres of farmland while New England lost 299,700 acres.

The disappearance of farms to highways, stripmalls and sprawling development is a critical problem in America. Of course, the corn chips that we eat at our Super Bowl parties didn’t start out in a bag! The snacks we’ll enjoy with friends and family on Sunday—along with the fruits, vegetables, dairy and meats needed for a healthy diet—depend on having a strong national team of farms and ranches. The loss of farmland threatens the ability of farming families to grow our food.

Did you know:

• An acre of farmland is 43,560 sq ft, which is just about the size of a football field (without the end zones).
• Over the last 25 years, the United States has lost approximately 23 million acres, which is the same size if Indiana (home state for this year’s Super Bowl).

This weekend, whether you’re cheering for the New York or New England team, you can also root for American Farmland Trust. Help the “farm” team by making a donation today to help save farmland!

About the Author: Jon Scholl is President of American Farmland Trust. Prior to AFT, he served as Counselor to the Administrator for Agriculture Policy at the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Jon and his

Within the world of an increasingly localized food movement, we are ever more familiar with buying a peck of heirloom apples, serving up a pound of grass-fed beef, decorating with a bouquet of seasonal flowers and adding a pinch or a dash of our local agricultural products to any meal.

A number of groups, including Wholesome Wave, an organization we have partnered with in New England, promote food culture reform by helping communities recognize the importance of local food production to their ongoing happiness, health and well-being. But even with a surge of interest in “local food,” and with a number of organizations working with us to support agriculture and all its benefits, it still remains difficult for many people to make the connection between the food we eat and the land required to grow it.

So what is the value of farmland? What can one acre of land do for us?

Common Ground, a farm, high school and education center in New Haven, Connecticut, teaches young people leadership skills and environmental stewardship with a single acre of farmland. Each year, on that one acre of agricultural land:

• Students grow more than 5,000 pounds of produce, including 43varieties of vegetables

• Thirty chickens, five ducks, five turkeys, two pigs, two goats, one rabbit, one sheep and one farm cat are tended

• New jobs are created through two paid summer internships and school-year jobs for 50 teenagers

With its single acre, a plot 1/7^th the size of a Manhattan block, Common Ground shows us what farmland means for America.

As the students well know, a single acre can grow a lot of food. In terms of food production, an acre can be used to grow vegetables for 20 to 25 families for a 21-week season. With good soil, weather and conscientious management, one acre can produce 8,000 pounds of broccoli, 26,000 pounds of carrots or 30,000 pounds of field tomatoes in a growing season—or more than two gallons of milk per day.

The school illustrates, on a small scale, how an acre of farmland creates jobs. Students and interns take part in production, processing, distribution and waste management of the farm and its produce. In the state of Connecticut, home to Common Ground, agriculture represents $3.5 billion dollars of revenue a year and generates 20,000 jobs—about five jobs for every 100 acres of food production.

Of course, Common Ground’s primary focus is to produce the fruits of great education: successful students. For four years straight, the test scores at Common Ground have shown gains, including the largest gains of any Connecticut high school in 2010. Their graduation rates and college attendance also exceed the state average. As one school employee explained, “We think the opportunities for active, authentic learning produced by our 20-acre site”—including the one acre they have in production—are “a critical part” of the students’ learning. Their community environmental programs have grown beyond their own students to reach more than 8,000 students within the immediate community.

And the hands-on learning of their students includes lessons about the role that farmland plays in safeguarding our environment. An acre of land provides countless ecosystem benefits that help to safeguard clean water and breathable air and could not be reproduced or substituted by technology. These benefits include water filtration, flood reduction and carbon sequestration. Farmland also provides nesting habitat for many species of birds and wildlife.

Connecticut and the Northeast remains a region of small farms, where each acre of farmland is caught in a tug-of-war between farming and other uses—from housing developments to parking lots. With growing demands to pave over farmland, it is simply hard to picture just what we mean by an acre of farmland and perhaps even more importantly, what an acre of farmland means to us. The rolling vistas of farmland and barns, silos and pasture connect our present with the agricultural past that built our nation. Even today, they represent true production and productivity and serve to link us together in our communities.

Share your story in the comments below: “Why is an acre of farmland important to you?”

An earlier version of this piece was originally featured in the Huffington Post.

About the Author: Leah Mayor is the Working Lands Alliance Project Director and New England Project Manager at American Farmland Trust where she focuses on policy, outreach, and education about the importance of farmland protection in Connecticut and the Northeast. Mayor is the founder and principal of Taking Root, and also blogs about food and agricultural systems for a number of online platforms, including the Huffington Post.

Future Faces of Farming

In 2011, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack called for 100,000 new farmers a year across the nation. In the foodshed surrounding Washington, D.C., a young generation of farmers—a diverse mix including educators, chefs and budding entrepreneurs—is rising to meet this challenge with the goal of strengthening the local farm and food system.

1,200 Acres of New York Farmland Protected

The Agricultural Stewardship Association of upstate New York recently announced the completion of a 1,200 acre conservation project on three farms in Rensselaer and Washington counties. Included in the project is the Hooskip Farm, which straddles the Vermont border and has protected land in both states.

Hospitals Across the Mid-Atlantic Commit to Buying Local

In Maryland, Washington, D.C., and northern Virginia, hospitals have been working to support local farmers, the local economy and healthier diets for their patients through the increased purchase of local foods. More than 40 institutions are regularly purchasing seasonal fruits and vegetables while nine have stepped up to also source meat and poultry locally. Existing campaigns, such as the “Buy Local Challenge” in Maryland, have helped to spur these new purchasing initiatives.

1,000 Pounds of Butter Warms Pennsylvania Home

Once an agricultural fair or farm show is over, what to do with a decorative butter sculpture? In Pennsylvania, a 1,000-pound sculpture was brought back to the farm and converted into biofuel through a mix digester.

Hawaii Introduces Farm to School Bill

Hawaii State Representative Cynthia Thielen recently introduced a bill that would permit schools throughout the state to purchase more food products grown or raised in the state. Rep. Thielen explained that the bill would support farmers economically while improving the health of students.

Future Farmers Answer Farm Bill Challenge

Officers of the National Future Farmers of America (FFA) answered a challenge from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to develop their own suggestions for the next farm bill. The organization, which focuses on school-based and extracurricular agricultural education, proposed recommendations in four categories: “Getting started in production agriculture; creating vibrant rural communities; who should care about agriculture and why; and planning for the future.”

Farmers embrace conservation tillage

Farmers in the San Joaquin Valley are switching to conservation tillage at a fast pace. This increase in interest comes at a much needed time for farmers and the environment in California’s Central Valley. With a potential for reduced operating costs and improved soil composition, conservation tillage has many benefits.

Minnesota increases water conservation practices

The USDA, EPA, and state of Minnesota have come together to develop a new state conservation program that will protect rivers, streams and lakes by encouraging farmers to adopt conservation practices that reduce nutrient run-off and improve water quality.

Mayors discuss food policy

Food policy was among the topics discussed this week during the annual Conference of Mayors in Washington, D.C. Mayor Menino of Boston heads the discussion of the Food Policy Task Force, covering topics from urban food policy  to SNAP benefits.

Bringing fair food access to you

Gus Schumacher, American Farmland Trust board member, discusses his passion for farming and fair food access. During his interview, he discusses the growth of farmers markets in our struggling economy and the volunteers who make them possible.

Renewable energy for farms

Alternative sources of energy are making their way onto farms. The Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Initiative (SARE) has been studying the best opportunities for renewable energy on farms, including solar, wind and fuels from animal waste.

Coventry Farmers Market pushes ahead successfully

The Coventry Regional Farmers’ Market is happy to announce that they have made it past another hurdle in their efforts to save their market. The difficulties of finding a new location after their lease was terminated have made it difficult to begin planning for their coming season.

Funds Available for Farmland Protection in Maine

The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service has announced that nearly $1 million will be available this year in Maine for successful applicants for the Farm and Ranch Lands Protection program. The state deadline is March 23 for 2013 funding. For more information on deadlines in other states, visit the NRCS website.

New York Dairies Benefitting from Yogurt Craze

An increased consumer demand for Greek yogurt is helping boost New York’s dairy economy. Over the last five years, yogurt production in the state has risen 60 percent, including a 40 percent hike in 2010.

Conference On Sustainable Food in Nebraska

The Nebraska Sustainable Agriculture Society will host its annual Healthy Farms Conference on February 10 and 11 in Nebraska City. The agenda includes programs for adults and youth, including sessions on marketing, land transitions and local food.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Shares Outlook for Farm Bill

Kicking off this year’s American Farm Bureau convention was a keynote address from Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack who outlined the Obama administration’s priorities for the farm bill. Issues included changes to farm support programs, support for conservation and funding for research.

Protect your teeth and save farmland

Tom Chappell of the environmentally conscious, natural body products company Tom’s of Maine has joined the farmland protection movement in a big way. Chappell recently worked with the Maine Farmland Trust to protect 154 acres of his own farmland from development, and he joined the organization’s campaign to protect 100,000 acres of agricultural land as an honorary chair.

South Carolina farmer shares his love for the land

The South Carolina community and the USDA honored the Williams Muscadine Farm in Nesmith, S.C. during a recent educational USDA Field Day. Farm owner David Williams and his family have transformed the grape vineyard into a destination and place for visitors to learn more about Southern agriculture.

Land transfer program now available nationwide

The Land Contract Guarantee Program, first authorized as a pilot program under the 2002 Farm Bill but expanded and made permanent in the last farm bill, is now available nationwide as of January 3, 2012. The program reduces the financial risk for retiring farmers who sell their farmland to a beginning or socially disadvantaged farmer or rancher, providing “a valuable alternative for intergenerational transfers of farm real estate to help ensure the future viability of family farms.”

Farmer to co-op

A new local foods co-op in Wooster, Ohio, helps to bring products from small local farmers onto its shelves. With area farmers often having difficulty marketing and selling their goods, they are benefiting from selling them to the Local Roots co-op, where they receive 90 percent of the purchase price and local consumers are happy to support them.

Farm incubator programs grow more then experience

Farm workers often hope to eventually own their own land, but even with years of experience, being able to acquire the necessary land isn’t always easy or affordable. Farm incubator programs are increasingly trying to give aspiring farmers the support they need to get off the ground and be viable.

Anaerobic digester aids farmland conservation

A partnership among farmers, an environmental group and an American Indian tribe outside of Seattle, Washington, has resulted in an anaerobic digester that produces electricity and compost while helping dairy farmers deal with waste from their cows in an environmentally sound way.

As another year draws to a close, we are offered the chance to reflect on our many successes across the country in 2011. We have made strides in addressing the great challenges and opportunities facing agriculture through our work to protect farmland from conversion to nonagricultural uses, promote environmentally sound farming practices and keep farmers on the land. We’re proud of our efforts over the past year to protect and steward America’s working lands and grateful to our partners and supporters for their vital roles in these achievements. Here are a few key accomplishments:

Helping Farmers and Ranchers Protect Working Lands

Our Farmland Information Center helped countless farmers and ranchers explore options on how to protect their land as well as transfer it to the next generation. We also worked on the state level to defend and strengthen farmland protection programs. For instance, when Wisconsin’s Governor Scott Walker put promised funds for the state’s Farmland Preservation Program on hold and called for eliminating it entirely, we mobilized farmers, activists and citizens. The state legislature listened, keeping the program intact and restoring funds for already approved projects. We addressed similar issues by spreading the No Farms No Food® message at “Ag Days” held in Massachusetts and Connecticut and at our rally to support farmland protection and thriving farms in New York.

Bringing Farming and Community Together

Keeping farmers on the land through food market support, smart growth, and community planning for agriculture is an important goal that we pursued in 2011. In California, our Bay Area Agricultural Sustainability Project focused on strategies to support thriving farms, farmland and community. Our Pacific Northwest office kicked off a study in the Seattle region to identify the potential of local farmland to produce additional food for the region and the changes in production, processing and distribution needed to link local farmers to local consumers.  In Rhode Island, we took the lead on a five-year strategic plan that provides a vision for strengthening the state’s agriculture by keeping more farmland in production, and working with public officials and citizens alike to support and promote agriculture.

Keeping Water Clean

Farmers are some of our nation’s greatest environmental stewards, but they face a delicate balance in growing healthy crops while protecting drinking water. Our strategic programs—including work in California, the Chesapeake Bay, Long Island Sound and the Mississippi River Watershed—are helping farmers reduce fertilizer runoff and improve water quality by developing new, innovative tools to boost use of conservation practices. We’ve stepped up efforts to implement our Nutrient BMP Challenge® program, which encourages on-farm conservation and helps reduce the amount of fertilizer flowing from farm fields into waterways. Through the program, farmers have reduced fertilizer use by 24 percent and lessened greenhouse gas emissions by 69 percent and soil erosion by 78 percent on thousands of acres in the Midwest alone.

Transforming Farm and Food Policy

Throughout 2011, we continued in our role of providing results-oriented and pragmatic leadership on farm and food policy. Working with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and others, we brought together leaders from agriculture, the environment and rural development for a National Agricultural Landscapes Forum to improve policy options for sustaining the agricultural landscape and rural regions. This fall we launched Agenda 2012: Transforming U.S. Farm Policy for the 21st Century — our plan for a federal farm bill that supports sound stewardship on working lands in order to safeguard the environment and keep farms and ranches thriving.

A Look Ahead

The coming year will present its own array of opportunities.  The federal budget deficit will continue to spur innovation in developing national and state policy.  High crop prices, development pressure, and adaptation to more volatile weather patterns, will put pressure on the agricultural land base, but American Farmland Trust will bring new research and information, dialogue and common ground among divergent groups and policy support to assure that we save the land that sustains us. We hope you will join us as we continue with our vital work to protect farmland, promote environmentally sound practices and ensure a sustainable future for farmers.

About the author: Katherine “Kitty” Smith is Vice President of Programs and Chief Economist at American Farmland Trust. She previously served as Administrator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, has served on several United Nations Expert Panels, and chaired the Organization of International Cooperation and Development’s Joint Working Party on Agriculture and Environment.